人民币汇率变动的进口价格传递效应——基于企业类型的实证研究

Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Pass-through into China's Import Prices:Empirical Research Based on Types of Enterprises

汇率传递是汇率变动与其经济影响的中间环节。传递弹性在很大程度上决定了汇率变动经济影响的大小。利用分布滞后模型、协整、向量自回归等方法,研究本国企业和外资企业的进口价格对人民币汇率变动的传递效应,结果显示,外资企业进口价格的传递弹性明显大于本国企业,人民币升值对外资企业进口的促进作用较明显。由于外资企业进口的很大部分是用于加工贸易,其较高的传递弹性会在一定程度上抵消人民币升值对出口的负面影响。

Exchange rate pass-through into prices （ERPT） is a very important mediate link between exchange rate and its economic effects. Economic effect induced by exchange rate change depends on the elasticity of ERPT to some degree. This paper uses Distributed Lag Model, Cointegration and VAR to research into the elasticity of domestic-funded and foreign-funded enterprises＇ import price ERPT. The result indicates that the elasticity of foreign-funded enterprises import price ERPT is much bigger than that of domestic-funded enterprises. RMB appreciation has a more stimulate effect on foreign-funded enterprises＇ import. Moreover, because considerable part of foreign-funded enterprises is used in processing trade, its higher elasticity can offset the side effect of RMB appreciation on export.