物价和汇率的决定的一般均衡分析——对人民币“内贬外升”现象的解释

General Equilibrium Analysis of Prices and Exchange Rate:An Explanation for Internal Devaluation and External Appreciation of RMB

物价和汇率是相互影响的。汇率对物价的影响比较简单:本币升值导致物价下跌。有效需求和物价对汇率的影响则比较复杂:在需求冲击的情况下,有效需求对汇率的影响是"两可"的,物价对汇率的影响是"单一"的(减函数);在供给冲击的情况下,有效需求对汇率的影响是"单一"的(减函数),物价对汇率的影响是"两可"的。需求冲击、供给冲击以及需求和供给同时冲击会导致物价和汇率的组合发生变化。其中,在四种情况下会出现货币"内贬外升"现象。

Prices and exchange rate are mutual action. The prices are rising as the currency is devaluated, but how the effective demand and prices influence the exchange rate are more complex. In the case of a demand shock, this paper argues that the effective demand will affect exchange rate uncertainly but the prices will affect it in a definitely way, by contraries, under a supply shock circumstances, the effective demand will affect exchange rate def＇mitely but the prices will affect it in an uncertainly way. So demand shock and supply shock plus the price and exchange rate will produce a complicated set. There are four cases which will lead to an internal devaluation and external appreciation of currency.