基于相似日权重的电力系统扩展短期负荷预测

Extended short-term load forecasting based on similar days weight

扩展短期负荷预测源于滚动发电计划的制定,在原计划与实际负荷发生较大偏离(大于3%)时,精确的扩展短期负荷预测有利于制定科学合理的滚动发电计划。在对当日已有电力负荷特性分析的基础上,运用形系数决定权重的思想,提出了基于相似日权重的扩展短期负荷预测方法。该方法克服了现有预测方法中对各相似日采用相同权重所导致的平滑效应对拐点负荷预测的影响。研究结果表明,该方法在保证运算速度的同时,提高了总体预测准确性和拐点处的预测准确性。

Extended short-term load forecasting is derived from the establishment of rolling generating schedule. When there is a relatively large deviation between the original plan and actual load （larger than 3%）, accurate extended short-term forecasting is helpful to plan rolling generating schedule scientifically and properly. On the basis of the availability of the analysis of intraday load characteristics, one method of extended short-term forecasting based on similar days weight is proposed in this paper, using the idea that the weight is determined by the shape coefficient. The influence of smoothing effect on the inflexion point load forecasting caused by using homology weights is overcome by the proposed method. Study results show that the proposed method can improve the global forecasting accuracy including the inflexion point while keeping the calculation speed.