近期国内外石油市场展望

Prospects for the International and Domestic Oil Market

1998年有可能成为自海湾战争结束以来油价最低的一年。受亚洲金融危机引起的需求增长减弱的影响,1998年世界石油需求量的增长幅度将明显减缓。尽管今年以来产油国两度减产,但因西方国家库存高涨,亚洲石油需求不振,加上产油国减产不可能全部到位,因此,今年年底前甚至到明年供需基本面可能不会有大的改观。预计明年油价显著上涨的可能性也不大。1997年和1998年上半年国内石油市场受国际市场影响较大。国际市场油价走势、国内打击走私能否持续进行下去和成品油价格改革能否顺利实行将决定今年下半年和明年的国内石油市场发展趋势。今后,石油和石化两大集团公司南北市场供需关系的协调和炼油分销系统的配合,将对国内成品油市场走势起到关键作用。市场本身的内在规律已经或正在成为左右国内石油市场走势的最关键因素。

Oil prices in 1998 will be the lowest since the end of the Gulf War, and the increase of world oil demand will slow down due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis. Although oil producing countries have twice decreased their production this year, the market fundamental will remain essentially unchanged by the end of the year and even next year because rapidly rising stockpiles in Western countries, and weak demand in Asia.while oil producing countries are not yet in a position to decrease production. It is unlikely that oil prices will not rise by a large margin next year. China' s domestic oil market was impacted seriously by the state of the international market in 1997 and in the first half of 1998.Prospects for the market in the second half of this year and next year will rely on the development of the international oil market, the crack down on oil smuggling and the effectiveness of pricing reforms of oil products. In addition, coordination between the CNPC and Sinopec groups in oil supply and distribution to China' s southern and northern markets will play a key role in the development of China' s domestic oil products' market.