1998年国内成品油市场形势分析

Analysis of China' s Domestic Oil Product Market in 1998

1998年1～6月,我国原油加工量累计比上年同期增长1.9％,达8111万吨;汽油、煤油、柴油、润滑油和重油产量合计为5229.92万吨;成品油消费量为4295.35万吨(主要为汽油、煤油和柴油),比上年同期增长2％;原油进口量比上年同期增长11.09％,成品油的进出口量均呈下降趋势。为了遏制国内成品油市场油价下滑,从年初开始,国家、中国石化总公司与中国石油天然气总公司采取了一系列措施。6月初,国家改革原油、成品油价格形成机制的政策出台。但由于市场供大于求的关系没有从根本上得到改善,再加上进口油和走私油的冲击,致使油品出厂量和销售量急剧下降。下半年的工作重点将是规范市场的经营秩序,为新价格政策的顺利执行创造条件。为此,应着重解决以下问题:1.使价格改革的配套措施尽快到位。2.加强成品油的“源头”管理。3.建立健全市场监督机制。4.加强石油、石化两大集团的协调。预计,四季度市场有望趋于好转,价格将走出低迷。

In the first half of 1998 .China's processed crude oil output increased by 1.9% to 81.11 Mt compared with the same period last year. The consumption of major oil products (mainly gasoline, diesel and kerosene) increased by 2% to 42.93Mt while the production of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, lubricants and heavy oil totaled 52.30MI. Crude imports were up 11.09% , and the import & export of oil products displayed a declining trend. Since the start of this year, China's government, Sinopec and CNPC have taken a series of measures to resist the further fall of oil product prices in China' s domestic market. In early June, China issued a policy of reforms on the price-fromulating mechanism concerningcrude and oil products. However, due to the situation where supply exceeding demand has not essentially changed in the domestic oil market and due to the impact of the imported oil and smuggled oil. the output and distribution of oil products from refineries has sharply decreased. In the second half of the year ,the focus will be given on how to make the market order uniform so as to create a proper environment to implement a new oil pricing policy. Therefore, the following measures should be considered: 1 .Measures which are compatible with price reforms should be put in place as soon as possible; 2. The 'source' of oil products should be brought under control; 3. A complete market supervising mechanism should be established; 4. The coordination of both CNPC and Sinopec groups should be improved. It is estimated that the oil market will be improved in the fourth quarter and oil prices will escape from their present depression.