大城市郊区流动人口“带眷迁移”特征研究——基于上海市闵行区流动人口状况调查

CHARACTERISTIC RESEARCH ON "BRING-ALONG MIGRATION" OF FLOATING POPULATION IN BIG CITIES' SUBURB——Based on floating population survey of MinHang district in Shanghai

通过分析流动人口"带眷迁移"的活跃性和迁移量,本文试图解读大城市流动人口"带眷迁移"行为的一般规律。借助于2005年7月《闵行区流动人口状况与服务需求》课题的问卷调查资料,从流动人口的来沪时间、年龄、收入水平、职业状况、受教育程度五个方面考察流动人口个体带动迁移行为发生概率及带动迁移能力。结果表明,"带眷迁移"行为受上述五方面的影响显著,年龄40岁、收入3000元成为流动人口带动迁移强度提升的节点;流动人口对少儿和老人的带动有明显差异,反映为少儿的高带动率、低带动能力,老人的低带动率、高带动能力。

By analyzing the probability and quantity of＂bring-along migration＂, the paper attempts to discover the common characteristics of the phenomenon in big cities. According to the specific concept of ＂bring-along migration＂ rate and the data collected from questionnaire, concentrating on people who play vital roles in the migration process in five aspects： time span to Shanghai, age, salary status, vocation and educational condition, this paper tries to explain the probability of that phenomenon and their ability to do this. The results indicate that the phenomenon of ＂bring-along migration＂ is impacted by the above five aspects significantly, age of 40 and income of 3,000￥ show as the node of ＂bring-along migration＂ intensity, especially since which the rate of ＂bring-children-along migration＂ increased notably; Besides, there is obvious difference between the phenomenon of ＂bring-along＂ children and ＂bring-along＂ elderly, which reflects as the high probability and low ability with children,the low probability and high ability with the elderly .In other words, although the children are the main following ones, their parents select one or two among children under the condition of limited income, which reflect as the high sex ratio of floating children. In addition, the low probability of ＂bring-elders-along migration＂ reflect that most of them stay in the rural areas, and the high ability of ＂bring-elders-along migration＂ predict that the floating population is inclined to stay in big cities rather than return to rural areas with aging in the future. The behavior of complete abolition of compulsory school fees and medical insurance gradually covering the entire resident population in cities will reduce the migrant workers＇ worry about the social security to a large extent; consequently, in the future the ＂bring-along migration＂ is expected to be more active, and the trend of ＂whole-family migration＂ will be further deepened.