联合火力打击弹药需求计算动态模型研究

Dynamic Model Research on Ammunition Demand in Combination of Firepower Blow

弹药是火力打击和火力毁伤的基础。传统的火力毁伤弹药需求计算主要有两种思路,一种是不考虑对抗,单纯基于目标的幅员和弹药的毁伤概率静态计算弹药的需求,一种是考虑对抗,运用兰切斯特方程计算弹药的消耗,这样求得的预测结果与实际需求均有较大的差距。研究发现,将基于目标打击的弹药需求和在对抗条件下武器损耗因素结合起来考虑,可以有机地将两种弹药消耗的计算思路融合在一起,建立新的数学模型,所得结果反映了弹药实际需求与外部因素的内在关系,与实际作战更加相符,对战时的弹药供应决策具有重要意义。

Ammunition is the base of firepower blow and firepower damage. There are two traditional calculation methods of ammunition demand, one method does not consider the counterwork, only based on the dimensionality of target and the damage probability of ammunition to calculation the demands of ammunitions, the other method considers the counterwork, only calculate the demands of ammunitions by the Lanchester Equation. Both of the methods can not calculate the true demands of ammunitions. The research shows that if considers the two conditions what are the demands of ammunitions based on the target blow and the factor of weapons waste together, it will fuse the two methods and build a new mathematic model. The results reflect the inner relation between the true demands of ammunitions and the exterior factors, and accord with the practice campaign experience. So these method and result have the important significance on the decision-making of ammunition supplying in war.