三峡库区的水上安全监管4R模式及应用研究

Four-R Model on Maritime Safety Administration and Its Application

分析三峡库区水上交通系统的复杂性,指出水上突发事件具有随机过程的马尔科夫性,确定水上交通安全状态的"常态"和"非常态"分类方法。运用德尔菲法确定了影响三峡库区水上交通安全的影响因素,并应用SPSS软件对影响因子进行了定量的主成分分析,建立了95%可靠度下的6个综合安全因素,并指出气象和水位是影响三峡库区水上交通安全的主要预警因子。

Study on the complexity of the waterway safety transportation system showed that the abnormal events, such as ship accidents, belong to the random process and safety condition consists of two periods： normal and abnormal baesd on the charataristics of events. Meanwhile, the safety condition has a special transfer feature fitting the markova chain mathmatically. The principla compoent analysis was taken to find the key factors on safety condition with the Delphi Method. It concludes that six synthetical factors could represents 95% reliablity among risk factors. Therefore, meteorolgical condition and water level are two main risk factors in the Three Gorges, in particual, the variation period water levels between 145 meters and 175 meters.