基本养老保险个人账户收益率与替代率关系定量分析

The Quantitative Analysis on the Relationship Between the Rate of Return and the Replacement Rate of Individual Basic Pension Accounts

基本养老保险之目的是为退休人员提供合意的退休金,避免陷入老年贫困。本文分别从现行制度计发办法和实际生命余岁精算的角度出发,定量分析了我国基本养老制度个人账户收益率与其替代率的关系,提出应高度重视当前个人账户低收益率所带来的严重后果,较高的收益率既是替代率的重要保证,也是累积制优越性的重要体现。而收益率的重要性却没有在政策制定中充分体现,低水平计息、微不足道的替代率皆与当初设想相去甚远。结论:既然建立了个人账户就应该将其做实并通过市场化运营获得较高的回报;而在还未有效地解决好收益率的情况下,不应草率地再将个人账户推广至其他群体,以免使更多人受损。

The main objective of the mandatory pension system is to reasonably provide benefit to the old to avoid poverty. This paper simulates the relationship between the rate of return and the replacement rate of individual basic pension accounts by quantitative analysis in terms of the regulation and the actual life-span. It points out that special attention should be paid to the low rate of return and the bad aftermath,and persists that the high investment return of individual basic pension accounts is not only the guarantee of the replacement rate,but also the precondition of the advantage of prefunding to the Pay-As-You-Go. But the regulation does not embody the importance of the rate of return,and the low record return and the low replacement rate are far from the objectives set out in the regulation. The conclusion is that as the individual basic pension accounts have been constructed, it is better to let it be funded and invested in the capital market for high investment return,but before doing that the plan should not be extended to other cohorts to avoid much more loss.