福州市1961-2001年气候变化特征分析

利用福州市1961-2001年月平均气温、降水量数据进行Mann-Kendall趋势检验、回归分析、累积距平分析和序列分析,研究福州市气候变化趋势的一般特征。结果表明,41年来福州市气温整体呈上升趋势,1990年以来增温特别明显。各个季节平均温度变化存在差异,冬季平均气温增高最为明显,其次是夏秋季,春季增温不明显。极低气温和极高气温变化比平均气温变化显著。各月总体变化显著,仅3个月接受Mann-Kendall趋势检验(α<0.1)。降水量年际变化有较大的波动。60年代降水量偏少,70年代初期和90年代降水量偏多,年内变化各月各季不一,总体呈明显增加趋势。

In order to study the general characteristics of climate changing trends in Fuzhou,The methods of Mann-Kendall trend test,regression analysis,the cumulative anomaly analysis and sequence analysis are used by using the average temperature,precipitation data from 1961 to 2001.The results showed that,the overall upward trend in temperature particularly since 1990.The average temperature changes are various differences between Seasons.It increased the most obvious in winter,followed by summer and autumn.And it changed not obvious in spring. Very low temperature and high changes more dramatic than the average temperature changes.The monthly change significantly overall, only 3 months to accept Mann-Kendall trend test （α 〈0.1）. Inter-annual changes in precipitation have a greater volatility. Less precipitation in 60＂s and more precipitation in the earh 70＂s and in 90＂s.Changes in precipitation are various during the different months and different months. Overall changes in precipitation had a marked increase, in the trend.