基于生态足迹分析的青海湟水河流域可持续发展能力

Sustainable Development Capability in the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province Based on Analyzing the Ecological Footprint

基于生态足迹模型,计算2000-2005年湟水河流域生态足迹。结果表明:6年来,湟水河流域人均生态足迹从2000年的1.426 5 hm2/人增加到2005年的1.659 6 hm2/人,人均生态承载力从2000年的1.116 8 hm2/人减少到2005年的1.056 9 hm2/人,人均生态赤字从2000年的0.443 8 hm2/人增加到2005年的0.729 5 hm2/人,生态压力指数从2000年的1.45上升到2005年的1.78,表征状态由较不安全(4级)上升到很不安全(5级),现有发展模式不变的话,预测2010年生态赤字达0.943 2 hm2/人,生态压力指数为2.07,处于极不安全状态(6级)。同时,随着湟水河流域生态足迹多样性指数从2000年的1.03提高到2005年的1.29,GDP生态足迹由2000年的2.702 3hm2/104元降低到2005年的2.215 6 hm2/104元,发展能力从2000年的1.46增加到2005年的2.14,预测2010年发展能力将提高到2.71。基于可持续发展理论,提出了实现湟水河流域可持续发展的措施和对策。

Based on the ecological footprint theory and calculation method, in this paper the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity in the Huangshui River Basin in Qinghai Province during the period from 2000 to 2005 are estimated. The results show that the per capita ecological footprint was gradually increased from 1. 426 5 hm^2 in 2000 to 1. 659 6 hm^2 in 2005, the per capita ecological carrying capacity was decreased from 1.116 8 hm^2 in 2000 to 1. 056 9 hm^2 in 2005, the per capita ecological deficit was increased from 0. 443 8 hm^2 in 2000 to 0. 729 5 hm^2 in 2005, and the ecological pressure index was increased from 1.45 in 2000 to 1.78 in 2005. All these facts reveal a downtrend of ecological status. It is predicted that the per capita ecological deficit and the ecological pressure index will be increased to 0. 943 2 hm^2 and 2.07 respectively in 2010, and the ecology in the Huangshui River Basin will be in an extreme insecurity if the current development mode is not changed. Moreover, with the increase of diversity index of ecological footprint from 1.03 in 2000 to 1.29 in 2005, the ecological footprint of ten thousand yuan GDP was decreased from 2. 702 3 hm^2 in 2000 to 2. 215 6 hm^2 in 2005, the development capacity was increased from 1.46 in 2000 to 2.14 in 2005, and it is predicted that the development capacity will be increased to 2.71 in 2010. Some measures and countermeasures are put forward for achieving sustainable development in the Huangshui River Basin based on the sustainable development theory.