宁夏太阳辐射逐日、月、年总量的变化特征

Change Characteristics of Daily,Monthly and Annual Solar Radiation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

利用银川及固原站5年太阳辐射实际观测资料建立的地方模拟推算式,模拟了宁夏全区20个站点1971-2006年太阳日辐射通量、累加月、年总辐射量。通过对2个站模拟值及实测值日月年辐射量的比较分析,得知银川站模拟推算值较实测值偏大,固原站偏小,但2个站模拟趋势与实测值一致。通过对银川及固原站的辐射通量模拟效果用平均偏差、平均绝对偏差、均方根偏差、平均绝对误差检验,2个站均方根偏差稍大,平均绝对误差银川站小于13%,固原站小于17%,模拟效果较好。累加的月、年太阳辐射区域性季节变化特点:北部干旱少雨的银川站月总量模拟值与实测值年际变动均为减少趋势,年总量累加模拟值与实测结果一致,均为减少趋势;阴湿多雨的南部固原站3,4,5,6月份月总量与实测值均为明显增加趋势,7月为弱增加趋势,其他月份均为减少趋势,年总量实测值为弱增加趋势,累加模拟值表现为平稳趋势。全区年总太阳辐射量年际(1971-2006年)变化特点为,多数站点呈明显增加趋势,少数站点呈明显减少趋势,个别站点呈基本平稳趋势。

In this paper, the solar radiation flux and the daily, total monthly and total annual solar radiations at 20 meteorological stations during the period of 1971 -2000 are simulated using the observed data of solar radiation at Yinchuan and Guyuan meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 5 years. The results show that the simulated values of solar radiation at Yinchuan Meteorological Station were higher than the observed ones but lower than the observed ones at Guyuan Meteorological Station. The simulated results of solar radiation fluxes at Yinchuan and Guyuan stations were tested with the methods of bias error, mean absolute bias error, root mean square error and mean absolute error. It is found that the root mean square error was slightly higher, the mean absolute bias error was lower than 13% and 17% at Yinchuan and Guyuan stations respectively. Regionally, the simulated and observed values of total monthly solar radiation are in a decrease trend at Yinchuan Station in the north where it is arid. There is an increase trend in March, April, May and June, a slight increase trend in July, and a decrease trend in other months at Guyuan Station in the south where it is rainy. The total observed annual solar radiation is in a slight increase trend, and the accumulated simulated value is stable. The total annual solar radiation is significantly increased at most stations but significantly decreased at a few stations.