汶川地震重灾区10县资源环境承载力研究

Studies on Bearing Capacity of Resources and Environment of 10 counties in Area Hited by Wenchuan Earthquake

资源环境承载能力评价是国家汶川地震灾后恢复重建规划的一项重要基础工作,目的在于为重灾区恢复重建提出适宜人口规模,使灾后重建的人口空间布局与资源环境承载力相适应。分析了汶川地震重灾区10个县地震后资源环境的变化趋势,对水资源、环境容量和土地资源分别进行评价,应用＂木桶短板效应＂原理,确定以土地资源的人口承载力反映整个区域的资源环境承载力;并从土地粮食承载人口、适宜建设用地承载人口和经济收入承载人口等3个方面分别进行计算,综合确定人口的合理规模。10个县的人口合理规模研究结果为：在2010年之前的恢复重建期,为132.5～140万人;从2020年实现全面小康而言,为99.5～106.5万人。结果表明：10个县资源环境承载力已达到极限,基本能够支撑震后人口恢复重建的需求,恢复重建阶段基本上不用考虑大规模移民;但10个县资源环境不足以支撑其全面小康社会建设的需求,需要在恢复重建完成后,采取综合性政策措施,引导人口向其它区域迁移。

Resources and environment bearing capacity evaluation is a significant part of the state planning for the restoration and reconstruction of post-Wenchuan Earthquake.The aim of this evaluation is to put forward appropriate population scale for restoration and reconstruction in disaster area,and the spatial distribution of population can adapt to resources and environment bearing capacity.This paper analyzes the changing trend of resources and environment of ten counties in disaster area.After evaluated water resources,environmental capacity and land resource,barrel effect is applied to ensure that population bearing capacity of land resources can reflect resources and environment capacity of the area,and rational population scale is confirmed by calculating population bearing capacity of land-grain resources,land for construction and income from land economy.The study shows that the population bearing capacity based on resources and environment in area hited by Wenchuan earthquake in 2010 is 132.5140 million.For meeting well-off standard the population bearing capacity in 2020 is 99.5106.5 million.It is concluded that bearing capacity of resources and environment of 10 counties reached the culminating point;and it can support restoration of population basically.The population of this area should not transfer massively during the period of restoration and reconstruction.However,the population should transfer by comprehensive policy after the restoration and reconstruction in respect that resources and environment can not support construction of well-off society completely.