税率提高预期下可耗竭资源最优开采研究

Study on optimum resources extraction under taxes rate increasing expectation

如何在不确定性条件下有效地开采可耗竭资源,是企业和政府极需解决的问题。考虑到政府可以通过改变政策制定的前景创造不确定性,本文描述了资源税征收预期的特征,利用全概率公式计算资源税征收的概率,建立了政策预期下资源开采的动态优化模型,并得到最优开采路径。结果表明:①资源税征收过程既不服从几何过程,也不服从泊松过程,在一定条件下,资源税征收预期可以退化为征收资源税与不征收资源税;②资源开采速度与资源税的关系,还与初始资源储量的大小有关。

It is urgent for business and government to solve the problem that how to extract exhaustible resources effectively under uncertainty. In fact, the government can create uncertain by changing the future of policy established. Firstly the characteristic of taxes policy expectation is described. Then probability of levy resource taxes is computed by using total probability formula. Based on these analyses, dynamic optimize model of resources extraction under policy expectation is built. And optimum extraction path is received. The results show： （1） The process of taxes levy expectation is not only followed geometric process, but also followed Poisson process. Under some condition, the problem of taxes levy expectation can degenerate to levy resources taxes or no resources taxes. （2） If the relation of resources extraction rate and resources taxes is analyzed, the primal stock must be considered.