摘要
China's August data came in better than July's.In particular, new loans were CNY 410bn(USD 60bn),allaying concerns about the negative impact of slower loan growth.We expect the momentum to remain strong for at least two more quarters.We look for the domestic private sector and exports to pick up some of the slack as the stimulus effect fades in H2-2010.Real tightening-by which we mean a hard constraint on loan availability-is at least three quarters away.However,in the meantime,we expect reserve requirements and rate hikes to be a shot across the bow,the latter possibly starting in Q2.
China＇s August data came in better than July＇s. In particular, new loans were CNY 410bn （USD 60bn）, allaying concerns about the negative impact of slower loan growth. We expect the momentum to remain strong for at least two more quarters. We look for the domestic private sector and exports to pick up some of the slack as the stimulus effect fades in H2~2010. Real tightening - by which we mean a hard constraint on loan availability - is at least three quarters away. However, in the meantime, we expect reserve requirements and rate hikes to be a shot across the bow, the latter possibly starting in Q2.
