中国、韩国1980～2006年能值足迹与能值承载力

Time series of national average emergy footprint and emergy carrying capacity in China and Korea between 1980 and 2006

根据基于能值分析理论改进的生态足迹计算模型——能值足迹和能值承载力模型,在空间尺度上从地区一级上升到国家尺度,探讨能值足迹和能值承载力在国家层面上若干年时间序列的变化趋势,并以中国和韩国为例,对两国在1980～2006年(韩国1980～2004年)期间的能值足迹和能值承载力进行了计算与分析,探讨中国和韩国的可持续发展状况.结果表明,中国人均能值承载力由1980年的2.7362hm2下降到2006年的2.0547hm2,同时,人均能值足迹却由1980年的1.7715hm2上升到2006年的5.7903hm2.中国自1987年以来出现能值足迹赤字,且赤字数额逐年增加,到2006年已达到-3.7356hm2.韩国人均能值承载力由1980年度3.1871hm2下降到2004年度2.5271hm2,人均能值足迹由1980的1.1339hm2上升到2004年的4.2419hm2,韩国自1992年出现能值足迹赤字,之后虽有小幅波动,但总体趋势与中国类似,赤字数额逐年上升,到2004年已达-1.7147hm2.目前,中国已不能满足基本可持续性的要求,而韩国能够满足这一要求.

We aim to demonstrate a new sustainable development index for emergy footprint and emergy carrying capacity from calculations combining the emergy analyses with the ecological footprint model and the concept of basic sustainability. We calculated the national average emergy footprint and emergy carrying capacity in China and Korea from 1980 to 2006. Our results showed that the per capita emergy carrying capacity in China dropped from 2.7362 hm^2 in 1980 to 2.0547 hm^2 in 2006,whereas the per capita emergy footprint increased from 1.7715 hm^2 to 5.7903 hm^2 during the same time period. The results indicate that since 1987,China has been running an ecological deficit which has been increasing every year. The national average emergy footprint and carrying capacity in Korea showed similar trends to those in China,based on our calculations. The per capita emergy carrying capacity in Korea dropped from 3.1871 hm^2 in 1980 to 2.5271 hm^2 in 2004,while the per capita emergy footprint increased from 1.1339 hm^2 to 4.2419 hm^2 during the same period. The ecological deficit in Korea has been increasing with small fluctuations since it first appeared in 1992. We concluded that China can hardly meet the requirement of basic sustainability for fast economic development,while Korea may be able to meet the requirement for sustainable development.