渤海COD入海通量估算及其分配容量优化研究

Study on estimation of flux of COD and allocation capacity in Bohai Sea

在系统分析环渤海地区各种污染源的基础上,估算了1979～2005年渤海COD的入海通量,并基于宏观环境-经济分配容量模型,对渤海COD的环境容量进行了优化分配。结果表明,自20世纪70年代末至今,渤海COD入海通量总体上“M”形变化趋势,年均入海通量180.4万t/a。渤海COD排海总量主要来源于以入海河流为主的陆源排放,高达72.3%;环渤海13个城市中,营口排放所占比例最大高达13.6%,沧州仅为2.5%。在一类水质标准条件下,2005、2010年13城市COD排放均需不同程度的削减,平均削减15.7%和38.3%;在二类水质标准条件下,除2010年潍坊和滨州2市需削减外,其他城市COD排放均满足海洋环境容量的要求。

The flux of COD into the Bohai Sea was estimated based on the systematic analysis of the pollutants sources from 1979 to 2005 and its allocation capacity was optimized according to the maeroscopical environment-economy model. Basically, the flux of COD presented the shape of ＂M＂ with the average annual flux of 1. 804 × 10^6t/a. 72.3% of COD in the Bohai Sea came from the terrestrial sources, especially the rivers. In 13 peripheral cities of the Bohai Sea, Yingkong accounted for the highest percentage of 13.6% , however, Cangzhou was the lowest percentage of 2.5%. The flux of COD should be reduced 15.7% and 38.3% to meet the Firstclass National Seawater Quality Standard in 2005 and in 2010, respectively. The COD outputs from all of cities except Weifang and Binzhou in 2010 meet the demand of marine environmental capacity under the Second-class National Seawater Quality Standard.