江苏省近30年来的土地利用变化的区域差异分析

Analysis on Differences of Regional Land Use Change in Jiangsu Province over Recent 30 Years

本文利用4个时相(1985年、1995、2000年和2005年)的遥感数据,提取了江苏省三大区域(苏南、苏中、苏北)的土地利用变化转换矩阵表,分析了江苏省的土地利用区域差异,并进行人口、城市化、农业结构调整因子、政策对土地利用差异的驱动机制分析。通过土地利用变化转换矩阵表统计得到:耕地的流出面积、城镇用地面积和农村用地面积的扩大面积从南到北呈梯度递减,且随着时间的推移,区域性差异越来越显著。在驱动力分析中发现:苏南地区大量耕地存在浪费利用与超前非农化的问题;在社会经济没有进入高度发达的时期之前,经济社会越是发达,人口的增长越落后于耕地的减少;在城市化过程中,城市越发达,城镇人口密度的增长对耕地向城镇用地的流入的影响越小;"苏南模式"是致使土地利用区域差异的重要因素。

In this paper,we took Jiangsu Province,which consists of northern,central and southern parts,as the study area,and extracted land use conversion matrix tables of the three parts based on land use data of Jiangsu Province during four different periods（1985,1995,2000 and 2005）.Accordingly,we analyzed the regional differences of land use and the driving mechanism of land use change in light of data on population,urbanization,adjustment of agricultural structure and policy.Land use conversion matrix tables show that cultivated land declined and rural and urban land use degrees expanded from the southern part to the northern part of Jiangsu Province,and regional differences become greater over time.Moreover,driving mechanism analysis shows that the use of cultivated land is extensive and the problem of advanced non-agricultural use is very serious in southern part of Jiangsu Province.In a time before a rapid development,the more developed the social is,the more the population growth will lag behind the reduction of cultivated land.During a process of urbanization,the more developed a city is,the less the increase of the urban population density will impel cultivated land to be converted into urban land.＂South Jiangsu Model＂ is an important factor to result in regional differences.