中亚能源地缘政治格局演进:中国力量的变化、影响与对策

Evolution Processes of Energy Geopolitical Pattern in Central Asia:Changes and Impacts of China's Power and Its Countermeasures

近些年来,中亚因其丰富油气资源和独特地缘战略地位引发了激烈的大国博弈,揭示和探究中亚能源地缘政治格局的演变过程对于理解全球能源格局变化、各国对中亚战略调整和制定中国利用中亚能源的对策具有重要意义。本文在阐释中亚油气资源及其在全球能源格局中地位的基础上,以中国在中亚能源地缘政治格局演变的力量变化为主线,并结合各国对中亚能源的争夺,对中亚能源地缘政治格局的演进过程进行了分析,将其划分为四个阶段,刻画了各演进阶段的地缘政治格局特征和各国对中亚能源的争夺局势,阐释了中国对中亚能源的利用状况以及中国力量在格局演变中的变化。最后,从中亚能源出口国、进口国和输送过境国三个方面探讨了中国对中亚能源地缘政治格局演变的影响,并提出了中国的应对策略。

Owing to having abundant oil and natural gas resources and special geopolitical location, Central Asia has been intensely contested by great powers in recent years. It is thus of utmost importance to investigate and reveal the evolution processes of energy geopolitical pattern of Central Asia for better understanding the evolution of global energy situations and changes in diplomatic strategies for major powers as well as proposing China＇ s strategies and countermeasures to utilize energy resources in Central Asia. The significant energy status of Central Asia in global energy system was demonstrated. Moreover, the evolution processes of Central Asia＇ s energy geopolitical pattern was systematically investigated and subsequently divided into four periods in terms of the change in China＇ s power and the energy competition between major powers. The geopolitical characteristics and energy contest situations in Central Asia was also examined. The change in China＇ s power and its energy collaboration with Central Asia countries for the four periods were analyzed. The characteristic for the first period （1991～ 1996） was that China got involved in Central Asia＇ s affairs initially and primarily focused on border safety and political trust, with no interventions in energy field in Central Asia. During the second period （1997～2000）, China gradually got a firm foothold in cooperation with Central Asia in energy under the framework of the ＂Shanghai five＂ mechanism. The establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO） in the third period （2001～2004） was an essential milestone indicating that the cooperation between China and Central Asia region has made remarkable progress and entered a comprehensive cooperation times. Meanwhile, the competition between China and other great powers became fiercer. For the fourth period （2005～present）, China has been broadening the energy collaboration with Central Asia countries and started to consider natural gas resources. Purchasing oil and gas companies and constructing oil and gas pipelines enable China to become more active and positive in the competition. Furthermore, we discussed China＇ s impacts on the evolution of Central Asia energy geopolitical pattern from three aspects, i. e., exporting, importing and transiting countries. Four primary countermeasures for China＇ s strategies in exploration and utilization of energy resources in Central Asia were given as follows： First, China should place more emphasis on the importance of Central Asia in China＇ s geopolitical strategy and energy security strategy. The conflicts between different great powers should be better understood and further utilized to promote China＇ s energy collaboration with Central Asia countries. In addition, ways for energy cooperation should be continuously improved and perfected. Finally, it would be greatly beneficial for China to strengthen energy dialogs and consultation between China and Central Asia countries in the framework of the SCO.