东北亚地区森林资源贸易与流动研究

Forest Resource Trade and Flow over Northeast Asia

经济发展与生态保护的要求使森林资源成为一种越来越重要的战略资源,东北亚地区拥有丰富的开发程度不高的森林资源,其森林资源的开发及贸易状况将对全球木材市场产生深远影响。本文对1992年～2006年东北亚六国木材贸易和横向流动情况进行了深入分析,结果表明:①东北亚区域木材贸易量与国家间木材流动量呈增长趋势;②俄罗斯是木材贸易与流动量最大及增加最明显的国家;③木材产量、经济状况、政策对木材贸易的影响最大,经济合作状况对各国的资源流动影响最大;④木材出口潜力国为俄罗斯、蒙古、朝鲜:俄罗斯增加强势,蒙古受资源基础及自然条件影响,朝鲜受经济技术影响;木材进口潜力国为中国、日本、韩国:中国强势增加,日韩微弱下降。我国应在保持同俄罗斯木材贸易量继续增加的基础上,加大对蒙古和朝鲜的森林资源合作开发力度,保持我国经济的快速增长并保护生态环境,加强我国森林资源的安全。

Economic development for a country usually requires a relatively large amount of timber. However, deforestation occurring in the world, particularly over tropical rainforest areas and developing countries, has been contributing to global warming, climate deterioration and soil erosion, which significantly damaged eco-environment over past decades. Forest resource has therefore become a kind of increasingly important strategic resource. Europe, Australia, America and Asia are generally abundant in forest resources, but a sort of predatory exploration and utilization for a long period has resulted in, to certain degree, the depletion of forest resources, making them expose to danger. Northeast Asia is one of the fewest regions of a large quantity of forest resources with a relatively lower developmental level. As a result, the situation of exploitation, trade and resource flow of forest resources over these regions would have significant influences on the world timber market. We made an extensive analysis on the timber trade status of Northeast Asia from 1992 to 2006 and on the timber flow status between six countries in Northeast Asia from 2000 to 2006 using data from Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database （FAOSTAT） providing time-series and cross sectional data relating to food and agriculture for around 200 countries. It was concluded that： 1） The quantity of timber trade in Northeast Asia as well as the forest resource flows among countries will still increase. Among the countries in this region, Russia is the largest country both in the timber trades and resource flows. Its volumes of trades and flows are increasing significantly; 2） Economic development and exploitation policy have the largest impacts on timber trades. They play an indirect role in affecting the timber production; 3） Timber productions and economic cooperation conditions affect the forest resource flow between countries most. For example, because of China-Mongolia cooperation, the quantity of timber flow between the two countries is increasing steadily while North Korea-Mongolia shows little timber flow; 4） Russia, North Korea and Mongolia have the largest potential of timber productions, while China, Japan and South Korea are the countries having the largest timber consumptions and timber demands. It was also suggested that China keep the increasing trend in timber trades with Russia, enlarge the scale of cooperation in exploration and utilization of forest resources with Mongolia and North Korea, and actively look for other trading partners in order to maintain a rapid growth of China＇ s economy, protect eco-environment and strengthen forest resource security.