非传染病因素对母猪死胎与木乃伊胎发生的Logistic回归分析

Logistic regression analysis of stillbirth and mummy in sow

目的:探讨除疾病以外对母猪死胎,木乃伊胎的影响因素。方法,用Logistic回归分析对胎次,配种月份、产仔月份、产活仔数、总产仔数、木乃伊胎率和死胎率进行回归分析。结果表明,在死胎的回归分析中,产活仔数、木乃伊胎率和总产仔数3个因素被选入多因素Logistic回归模型中,其OR值分别为:36.266、0.030和0.002。在木乃伊胎进行回归分析中,分娩月份、产活仔数、死胎率和总产仔数4个因素被选入多因素Logistic回归模型中,其OR值分别为:1.092,0.404,0.227,2.561。结论:死胎的发生与环境温度、胎次无回归关系,木乃伊胎与分娩时环境温度或临近分娩时的环境温度有正回归关系,死胎和木乃伊胎都与产活仔数有负回归关系,与总产仔数有正回归关系,互相进入对方的回归方程。

Objective ： To investigate the influence factor of stillbirths and mummy except for disease. Logistic regression analysis of parity, breeding month, month of birth, number of pigs born alive, total number of piglets born per litter, mummy rate, stillbirth rate. Results： In stillbirth rate of regression, number of pigs bern alive, mummy rate and total number of piglets born per litter were elected to the multi-factor Logistic regression model, the OR value were 36. 266, 0. 030, 0. 002, respectively. In the incidence of mummies rate regression, month of birth, number of born alive, stillbirth rate and total number of born were elected to the multi-factor Logistic regression model, the OR value were 1. 092, 0. 404, 0. 227, 2. 561 respectively. Conclusion： The incidence of stillbirth rate was not related to ambient temperature and parity. The mummy rate was affected by the farrowing temperature or the temperature of close to delivery. Stillbirths rate and mummies rate are related with litter size and born alive number.