储蓄-投资相关性及影响因素的国际研究──基于发展中国家的面板协整分析

An International Study on Saving-Investment Correlations and the Influential Factors──An Cointegration Analysis in Panel Data from Developing countries

储蓄与投资是经济增长的两个基本要素,它们之间的相关关系一直都是现代宏观经济理论研究的核心问题,对此,本文结合最新发展的面板单位根检验及面板协整检验等方法,对中国、巴拉圭等24个发展中国家进行跨国比较,分别从总体样本和单位样本的角度对储蓄-投资的相关关系进行研究,并在此基础上对两者关系形成的各种影响因素进行综合检验。研究结果表明,在本文研究的样本国家及时期内,储蓄与投资在总体上呈现出显著的相关关系,而且与发达国家相比,发展中国家具有相对较小的储蓄-投资相关系数。与此同时,本文研究发现,储蓄-投资相关系数与总抚养比率、经济增长显著相关,而国家规模、贸易开放程度等并非储蓄-投资相关系数大小的决定性因素。

Saving and investment are the key elements for economic development, and the saving-investment correlation is always an important topic for modern macroeconomic theory research. Therefore, based on the recent developments of tests for the panel unit root and panel cointegration, this paper investigates the saving-investment correlations for 24 developing countries such as China and Paraguay, and then makes a comprehensive analysis of their influential factors. Panel cointegrating regression uncovers a significant correlation between saving and investment in developing countries and the saving-investment coefficient for developing economies is low relative to developed countries. In addition, we also find that age dependency ratio and economic growth have significant influence on the degree of saving-investment correlation while the country size and openness are not the key factors to explain it.