上海市产业结构和能源结构的变动对碳排放的影响及应对策略

EFFECT OF THE CHANGES OF THE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND THE ENERGY STRUCTURE IN SHANGHAI ON CARBON EMISSION AND THE STRATEGIES FOR RESPONSE

节能减排是政府工作的一项重要任务,为了给上海碳排放政策的制订提供有效的参考依据并提出合理的应对策略,采用IPCC 2006年提出的各类能源排放二氧化碳量的计算方法,根据近年来上海工业能源消耗和GDP增长及产业结构变化相关数据,分析了上海城市的碳排放变化趋势,探讨了产业结构和能源结构变动对碳排放量的影响。研究表明,能源结构的变动尤其是高排碳的煤类能源比重下降,热、电等能源比重上升,是上海万元GDP碳排放量下降的主要原因。针对能源结构的发展趋势,提出继续优化能源结构,降低煤类能源比重,鼓励使用电、热类能源,促进产业结构升级,尤其是促进第三产业的发展,利用上海周边资源开发潮汐能等新能源促进能源类型的多元化等多种应对策略。

Energy conserving and reduction of CO2 emission is one of the important works for the government, to supply the effective reference and propose the right strategies for Shanghai to make the policies of CO2 emission, according to the related data of the Shanghai industry energy consumed and increase of GDP and the changes of the industry structure,this article adopted the carbon emission calculating method for all kinds of energy proposed by IPCC 2006, to analyze the trend of the carbon emission in Shanghai and investigate the effect of the change of industry structure and the energy structure to the carbon emission. The study shows that the main reason for the decrease of the carbon emission per 10 000 yuan is the change of the energy structure, especially the proportion of coal type energy with high carbon emission declined and the proportion of heat and electricity type energy increased. So the article proposes as follows：optimizing the energy structure further,reducing the proportion of the coal type energy, encouraging to use the heat and electricity type energy,upgrading the industry structure,especially accelerating the development of the tertiary industry, diversifying the energy types by developing new energy such as the tidal energy using the resource around Shanghai, and so on.