我国技术变迁对环境影响的计量分析

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES IN CHINA

为了促进技术变迁因素在我国环境保护中发挥更大的作用，需要分析其以往对环境的影响，为我国的技术政策提供支持。使用动态基期，用统计方法定量计算了1994～2004年各年度技术变迁因素对我国主要空气和水污染物排放量的影响。按是否以削减污染为直接目标，可将技术变迁分为2类：（1）生产工艺的变化。这种技术变化不以污染削减为直接目标，但会影响到生产投入物的数量和种类、生产过程中污染物的产生量并因此影响到最终的污染强度和排放量。（2）污染削减技术的变化。这种技术变化以污染削减为直接目标。利用环境统计年鉴中的污染削减量数据将技术效应分解为2部分：源自污染削减技术和源自生产工艺，发现从总体上看技术变迁降低了所有污染物的排放量，其中污染削减技术对所有污染排放量的下降都起了积极作用，但伴随较大的年度变化。生产工艺变化对不同污染物的影响方向不同。可见中国目前的污染削减主要依靠“末端”污染削减技术，“过程控制型”生产工艺没有充分发挥应有作用，也反映出目前技术变迁尚未向“环境友好型”演进。因此，要促使我国技术变迁向“环境友好型”演进，特别需要促进清洁生产技术的开发和推广，在生产过程中减少污染物的产生。

In order to promote technological change playing greater role for environment protection in China, it is needed to learn the impacts of technological change on environment, which can provide supports for technology policies. Being different from former qualitative researches, this paper calculated annual effects of technological changes on air pollution and water pollution by using dynamic base period statistics method during 1994-2004 in China. Depending on if abating pollution is the direct target, technological changes can be divided into two sorts： （1）Changes of producing technology. They do not aim at cutting pollution, but can alter pollution intensity and pollutant emission through altering pollution production in producing process. （2）Changes of abating technology. They aim at cutting pollution. This paper decomposed the technological effects into two parts by using pollution abatement data in environmental yearbooks：one is from the change of abating technology and the other is from the change of producing technology. The results show that technological changes cut pollutant emission at large. The change of abating technology reduces all kinds of pollutants with apparent annual fluctuation. Change of producing technology has uncertain effects to pollution emission. These results show that China＇s pollutant abatement mainly depends on ＂end-of-pipe＂ abating technology. Producing technology which reduces pollutant in producing process does not play its due role. Technological changes have not turn to ＂environment-friendly＂. Therefore, in order to promote China＇s technological changes to the ＂environmentally friendly＂ evolution, promoting clean production technology which reduce pollutants in production process is particularly needed.