青藏高原“敏感区”对我国灾害天气气候的影响及其监测

The effects of sensitive region over Tibetan Plateau on disastrous weather and climate and its monitoring

根据中国区域大范围洪涝、暴雨、暴雪天气预报上游关键区,以及气候变化敏感区多圈层信息平台等重大需求。从"世界屋脊"青藏高原为灾害性天气上游关键区与气候信号敏感区的观点出发,提出高原及周边观测工程建网新思路与应用新技术方案,设计、构建了新一代气象综合观测预警长期监测系统,实现科学试验-工程建设-工程应用开发途径,发展高原及周边敏感区灾害天气上游早期预警系统监测平台,为灾害性天气预报与区域气候变化提供多功能业务服务应用平台;采用高原东缘南-北轴向观测数据信息(GPS监测站与AW S站)应用于改进WRF(weather research and forecasts)模式三维变分方案,实现了模式优化站网信息的同化技术,可提升中国区域暴雨、南方雪灾模式预报能力。针对夏季暴雨、南方暴雪,检验、证明了高原观测工程布网"早期预警"的显著效果。

A new-generation, three-dimensional observing network on the plateau and its peripheral may not only provide a strong precursor for the development of regional disastrous weather and climate events downstream, but may also provide crucial information on cross-hemispheric energy and water cycle and global climate change. In view of the roles of the Tibetan Plateau as the upstream key region for flooding, heavy rainfall, and snowstorms in a large area of eastern China, and the most sensitive region for climate change on the global scale, a plan for setting up an observing network and application of new technology has been proposed. We have designed and constructed this new-generation observing network on the Tibetan Plateau and its peripheral regions. The development of this new observing network has gone through a path of scientific experiment engineering construction- operation application. In particular, utilizing a north-south line of observational data from GPS and AWS stations on the east fringe of the Plateau, we were able to assimilate these data into the WRF （ weather research and forcaits） 3Dvar system. The ensuing predictive results indicated that the upstream observations enhanced the ability for numerical prediction of summer heavy rainfall in eastern China and winter snowstorms in south China. Verifications suggested that the observing network had a significant impact on the early warning of disastrous weather events downstream.