内蒙古综合运输需求预测

Demand Forecast of Integrated Transportation in Inner Mongolia

本文运用灰色系统模型和指数平滑方法对内蒙古地区近12年相关运输数据进行分析,预测出内蒙古地区未来5年综合运输需求的客运总量和货运总量。2010-2015年内蒙古地区综合运输需求总量将继续保持上升趋势,综合运输发展具有较大潜力。

In recent years, the demand of integrated transportation in Inner Mongolia region keeps increasingup. In this paper, the method of gray system model and exponential smoothing method is used to analyze the transport data of Inner Mongolia during the past twelve years and to predict the passenger volume and cargo volume of Inner Mongolia the next 5 years. In addition, the paper points out that the demand of integrated transportation in Inner Mongolia region during the 2010 - 2015years. will continue to maintain upward trends, and there is a greater potential development in this region.