摘要
针对固定电话和移动电话用户人数的时间序列,将小波变换与R/S分析法,多重分形相结合,探讨了系统的动力学特性和演化规律,并从分形维数、非周期循环长度、奇异性指数等方面指出电话用户人数增长趋势存在强持续性和长期记忆性以及具有多重分形特征,随着配分阶数的增大,多重分形随之增强,并得出移动电话人数的多重分形特性更强。接着对原始数据和小波重构后的数据进行了回归拟合比较,结果证明小波重构后的数据拟合程度更高,并利用重构的数据预测了未来三个月的电话用户人数。
By reconstructing the original data by wavelet transform based on R/S analysis and multifractal analysis,it analyses the nonlinear characteristics of the system of fixed-line phone users and mobile phone users and its evolutionary principle.According to fractal dimension,non-periodic cycle,holder index,it points out that the growth of phone users has strong stability,long-term memory and multifractal feature.With the order of paritition function increasing,the muhifractal strength increases.Moreover,the multifractal strength of mobile phone users is greater.Compared to the original data,the reconstructed data fit better.The number of phone users of the next three months is forecasted by the reconstructed data.
出处
《计算机工程与应用》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第29期198-201,共4页
Computer Engineering and Applications
基金
国家自然科学基金(No.60675031)
安徽省高校自然科学研究计划项目(No.KJ2008B093)
中国博士后科学基金(No.20070411028)
安徽大学人才队伍建设经费资助~~
关键词
电话用户人数
R/S分析
非周期循环长度
多重分形分析
小波变换
预测
the number of phone users
Rescaled Range Analysis（R/S）
non-periodic cycle
multifractal analysis
wavelet transform
forecast
