交通设施、收入水平、假日政策与国内旅游收入增长——基于VAR模型的研究

Transportation,Income,Holiday Policies and Domestic Tourism Income Growth——Based on VAR Model

根据1987-2006年数据,建立VAR模型,运用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及协整检验,研究国内旅游收入自身、交通设施和国民收入水平、休假政策等因素对国内旅游收入增长的影响。研究结果表明:促进国内旅游收入增长的主要因素依次为国内旅游收入自身、国民收入水平和交通设施,而休假政策不是。建议通过建立旅游消费社会引导机制和加强旅游交通基础设施建设来促进国内旅游收入增长。

Through constructing VAR model, and using the Granger Cause Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition, the paper analyzes influence factors about domestic tourism income in accordance with the data from 1987 to 2006. It shows that, according to priority, major factors promoting domestic tourism income growth are domestic tourism income itself, national income level and transport facilities, while the holiday policy is excluded. The study proposes to promote the further growth of domestic tourism income by establishing social-guidance mechanisms of tourism consumption and strengthening the tourist transport infrastructure construction.