石油价格上涨对居民消费价格指数影响分析

Analysis of Impact of Petroleum Price Increase on CPI

我国石油目前的对外依存度已经突破50%,国内能源价格与国际石油价格的联动效应显著,国际石油价格的剧烈波动已经成为国内物价上涨的重要诱发因素.本文利用投入产出分析理论,在假定市场供求与行业增加值不变的条件下,建立了石油价格对物价指数的影响模型,根据中国2002年投入产出表的数据,应用该模型测算的结果为:石油价格每上升1%,物价指数增加0.0624.对比2007年12月至2008年6月中国的CPI数据,发现石油价格上涨对CPI的贡献率都在40%以上.

China＇s degree of dependence on imported petroleum has exceeded 50 percent at present. The prices of energy products at home have a remarkable dynamic linkage with the price of international petroleum whose violent fluctuation has been the important inducing factor to the soaring price of domestic products. In this paper, the authors using the analytical theory of input and output, with the supposition of invariabilities in market supply, demand, and added values, establish the model of impact on price index brought about by the petroleum price. According to the data from the 2002 input and output table of China, the calculated consequence from the application of the established model shows that the price index increases by 0. 0624 while the petroleum price increases by 1 percent. Compared with China＇s CPI from Dec 2007 to Jun 2008, it is found that the contribution rate of petroleum price rise to CPI is over 40 percent.