食物消费与需求弹性——基于城镇居民微观数据的实证研究

Food Consumption and Demand Elasticity:Evidence from Household Survey Data

利用1986～2002年的城镇居民微观调查数据考察食物消费行为，运用两阶段的Engel模型——working—Leser模型和LA／AIDS模型估算各类食物的需求收入弹性和需求价格弹性的变化趋势，同时就零消费问题进行相关讨论，并采用Tobit模型的方法予以处理，得到较为稳健的研究结论。研究发现：主粮类食物中的大米和面粉仍然是生活必需品；大米、面粉、牛羊肉是富有价格弹性的商品，猪肉的需求自价格弹性较小；肉类食物的需求收入弹性基本表现为下降趋势，其中牛羊肉的需求收入弹性略大于家禽，猪肉的最小。

In this paper, we analyzed China＇s urban and town households consumption patterns for food commodities using micro- and time-series data. A two-stage model was estimated to evaluate an empirical demand system for food commodities which combines a Working-Leser model and a LA/AIDS model as a modeling framework. And we dealt with zero-consumption problem. The results indicate that rice and flour are still necessities. The income elasticity of meat is generally on a downward trend. The income elasticity of flocks and herds has been greater than the income elasticity of poultry. The income elasticity of porks is minimal for all meat. At present, the own-price elasticities of flee, flour, flocks and herds exceed one, but pork has changed into the price-inelastic commodity.