信贷规模与城乡经济增长关系实证研究——以陕西省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Credit Scale and Economic Development of Urban and Rural Area——a SVAR model study in the case of Shaanxi province

信贷渠道是中国省级层面货币政策的主要传导渠道,利用陕西省改革开放30年的年度数据,构建SVAR模型,实证表明信贷规模与城乡经济增长具有长期稳定关系。脉冲响应结果显示:城镇收入变动对信贷规模变动的反应更敏感,作用时间更长;方差分解进一步证实,信贷规模的变动对城镇收入变动贡献率远大于对农村收入变动贡献率。信贷因素有加深城乡二元经济结构的趋势,缩小城乡收入差距、深化金融体制改革是统筹城乡金融与经济发展的关键。

The credit channel is a main monetary policy channel in China＇s provincial level. In this paper the author use of 30 annual data of Shaanxi province since economic reforming and opening up. Based on the empirical analysis of SVAR model, the author find some relationship between urban economy, rural economy and credit scale. The Impact strength, time lag effect and contribution rate of credit scale to urban economy and rural economy are significant different. Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas as well as deepening the reform of the financial system is the key to co- ordinate urban and rural finance.