摘要
运用生存分析理论，推导出一种植病流行在时间动态上的新模型：ｘ（ｔ）＝１－ｅｘｐ｛－βυ［ｔ－１υ（１－ｅｘｐ｛－υｔ｝）］｝．该模型不同于以往的Ｇｏｍｐｅｒｔｚ、Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ、指数和Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ植病流行模型，而且具有一定的生物学意义和应用价值。此外，作者使用正交表法给出了该模型参数的估计和在水稻纹枯病流行中的一个应用实例。
Based on the theory of survival analysis, a new model of plant disease epidemic is put forward as follows: x(t) =1-exp{- βυ1υ (1-exp{- υt})]} . The model differs from the Gompertz′s, the Logistic, the Exponentical, and the Weibull′s models of plant disease epidemic. The model also has some biological meanings and has found a wide application in plant disease epidemic. In addition, a method of parameter estimation and a numerical example were given in this paper.
出处
《南京农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1998年第4期42-46,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University
关键词
植病流行
生存模型
参数估计
plant disease epidemic
survival model
parameter estimation
