基于蒙特卡洛改进算法的地铁电力系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Metro Power System Based on Improved Monte Carlo Algorithm

在分析电力系统可靠性评估基本方法的基础上,考虑到地铁电力系统故障率较低,故障状态枚举方法难以获得精确的随机状态,以及设备单元的故障信息无法通过直接抽样获取,故使用正态分布描述地铁电力系统设备单元发生故障的实际过程,提出了改进的蒙特卡洛非序贯仿真算法,并给出其求解过程,构建了地铁电力系统的结构模型、Petri网模型和可靠性评估指标,最后以南京地铁一号线电力系统设备单元初始参数为计算数据,所得结果较传统计算方法更为准确,同时能够模拟故障维修时间以及区分不同故障类型.

In light of the lower failure rate of metro power system,difficult for achievement of precise random state by failure state enumeration method,fialing achievement of failure information by the direct sampling,normal distribution function was used to describe the real process that the equipment unit of metro power system gets out of order.The improved method of Monte Carlo non sequential algorithm was put forward with given solving process.Then,the structure model of metro power system,the Petri net model and reliability evaluation data to evaluate. The intial parameters of Nanjing Metro I were used as the calculation data to evaluate. The findings show that the results are better than the conclusions calculated with traditional method. This method can simulate the time of failure repair and can distinguish different of failure types.