临夏州胃溃疡月发病人数时间序列拟合

Linxia Month Incidence of Gastric Ulcer the Number of State Time Series Fitting

目前国家有关胃溃疡发病情况的时间序列分析研究较少,通过建立数学模型,研究胃溃疡发病的相关情况,可以做到及时预防。通过SPSS软件对甘肃张家川地区胃溃疡发病例监测登记资料进行统计分析,同时进行时间序列模型拟合,观察疾病发展趋势,建立时间序列模型,并进行预测值比较。在此得到最优时间序列模型,并给出数学表达式。至此应该充分考虑人在各时间段的发病特征,更有重点的进行健康防治工作,有效地降低胃溃疡对人类的危害,从而保障了人类的生活品质。

At present, the national incidence of Gastric ulcer related to the time series analysis of the study less, through the establishment of mathematical models to study the incidence of related gastritis, prevention can be done in a timely manner. In this paper, SPSS software for the Gansu region in Zhangjiachuan Gastric ulcer made to monitor cases of the registration data for statistical analysis of time series at the same time fitting the model to observe the development trend of the disease, the establishment of time--series models, and predictive value comparison. In this has been the best time series model related to mathematical expressions. This should take full account of the time period in the incidence of features and more focused on the prevention and treatment of health, effectively reducing the harm to human Gastric ulcer, is to ensure that the quality of life of mankind.