利用灰色模型对全国卫生技术人员数量的预测研究

Study on the Forecast of Health Professionals in China by Gray Model

目的:预测2008～2017年全国、城市和农村卫生技术人员数,为卫生部门合理地规划卫生人力配置提供参考依据。方法:以1981～2007年全国卫生技术人员数为基础数据,使用灰色预测模型对2008～2017年全国卫生技术人员发展趋势进行预测分析。结果:全国卫生技术人员总数呈逐年增长趋势,从2008年的4 864 117人增加至2017年的5 497 653人;全国的医生、护士、检验人员的平均增长速度分别为1.345%、2.957%和1.618%,而药剂人员则以0.058%的平均速度减少;结论:全国卫生技术人员总量达到并超过我国"十一五"规划对卫生技术人员的规划标准,城市与农村的卫生技术人员分布不合理,卫生技术人员专业结构不合理。

Objective： It provides health department with useful information by predicting numbers of technicians in public health in city,rural and all over the country during 2008 to 2017.Methods： Grey model is used to predict numbers of Health technicians in China from 2008 to 2017 on the base of Health technicians data from 1981 to 2007.Results： The total number of Health technicians increases year by year in China,which may vary from 4 864 117 in 2008 to 5 497 653 in 2017.The separate increase rates of doctors、 nurses and examiners of all country on average are： 1.345% 、 2.957% and 1.618%,while the decrease rates of pharmacists is 0.058%。 Conclusion： The number of health technicians attain the standard in the 11th Five-Year Plan,the allocation of health technicians in rural and urban is irrationality.