摘要
目的:预测2008~2017年全国、城市和农村卫生技术人员数,为卫生部门合理地规划卫生人力配置提供参考依据。方法:以1981~2007年全国卫生技术人员数为基础数据,使用灰色预测模型对2008~2017年全国卫生技术人员发展趋势进行预测分析。结果:全国卫生技术人员总数呈逐年增长趋势,从2008年的4 864 117人增加至2017年的5 497 653人;全国的医生、护士、检验人员的平均增长速度分别为1.345%、2.957%和1.618%,而药剂人员则以0.058%的平均速度减少;结论:全国卫生技术人员总量达到并超过我国"十一五"规划对卫生技术人员的规划标准,城市与农村的卫生技术人员分布不合理,卫生技术人员专业结构不合理。
Objective: It provides health department with useful information by predicting numbers of technicians in public health in city,rural and all over the country during 2008 to 2017.Methods: Grey model is used to predict numbers of Health technicians in China from 2008 to 2017 on the base of Health technicians data from 1981 to 2007.Results: The total number of Health technicians increases year by year in China,which may vary from 4 864 117 in 2008 to 5 497 653 in 2017.The separate increase rates of doctors、 nurses and examiners of all country on average are: 1.345% 、 2.957% and 1.618%,while the decrease rates of pharmacists is 0.058%。 Conclusion: The number of health technicians attain the standard in the 11th Five-Year Plan,the allocation of health technicians in rural and urban is irrationality.
出处
《中国卫生经济》
北大核心
2009年第9期48-49,共2页
Chinese Health Economics
基金
卫生部基金项目(WKJ2007-3-002)