基于相对资源承载力新疆可持续发展研究

Sustainable Development Study in Xinjiang Based on Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources

本文采用相对资源承载力的研究思路和分析方法,计算了1978-2007年29年间新疆相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和相对综合资源承载力状态及其演化过程。研究表明:①土地资源是新疆人口的主要承载资源;②1990年以后,新疆实际承载人口数量出现"低—高—低"的波动;③新疆目前仍处于人口承载相对富裕的状态,但有趋向临界值发展的趋势;④新疆经济资源承载力能力脆弱。研究认为:新疆可持续发展的关键制约因素:一是长期处于两位数高出生、高增长的人口发展状态;二是自然资源开发与利用的转换效率低,资源浪费和环境损坏的代价大;三是经济基础薄弱,难以支撑新疆社会的可持续发展。建议:新疆应制定新时期人口发展战略;创新人口管理机制;制定控制人口、提高素质与强力有效的激励措施并举的政策;将人口自然增长率控制在10%以内;充分利用资源优势,提高资源转换效率,促进经济发展,实现新疆人口、资源与环境经济的可持续发展。

The author of this article used the relative carrying capacity of resources methods to calculate the relative carrying capacity of land resources in Xinjiang,the relative economic resources carrying capacity and carrying capacity of the relative integrated resource status and its evolution process in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2008.Study shows that： ① land resources are the main population carrying resources in Xinjiang;② Since 1990,the number of Xinjiang s population actually have carried a ＂low-high-low＂ volatility; ③ Xinjiang is still in a relativelyaffluent population carrying status, but it tends to the critical value; ④ the carrying capacity of the economic resources in Xinjiang is fragile. The author thinks： the key factors to restrict sustainable development in Xinjiang are the high, long-tema birth rate and the high growth of population, low conversion efficiency of the natural resources development and utilization, which results in resource waste and environmental damage, and weak economic base that is difficult to support the sustainable development of Xinjiang. The author proposed that firstly, in the new period population development strategy should be formulated, secondly, innovative population management mechanism should be made; thirdly, formulate policies on population control, improve population quality and make strong incentive measures to effectively realize population management goals and to ensure that the natural population growth rate within 10%, and finally, make full use of resources, improve conversion efficiency of resources, promote economic development, and achieve the sustainable development of population, resources and environment in Xinjiang.