人口发展熵值-模糊综合评判模型研究

Research on Model About Development of Population Based on Entropy-fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

为了构建"以人为本"的和谐社会,实现人口、经济、环境协调发展,国家制定了人口发展战略。而人口发展战略的实现要受多种因素影响,这需要在理论上构建人口发展综合评价模型对这一复杂的发展过程做出监测和评判。在建模过程中,如何找到一个能对人口综合发展相关的指标体系进行综合评判的方法是建模的关键。本文在构建人口综合发展指标体系的基础上,针对人口综合发展评价中客观存在的模糊性与随机性,将信息论汇总的熵值理论引入人口发展综合评价中,构建了人口发展熵值-模糊综合评判模型,并引入1985-2007年我国23年人口发展相关指标的时间序列数据,对这一期间全国人口综合发展各级隶属度变化趋势作了刻画,并采用2007年截面数据对全国和四个直辖市的人口综合发展状况进行评价检验,证明我们构建的人口发展熵值-模糊综合评判模型是一个有效模型。

In order to construct the harmonious society based on the idea ＂human first＂ and realize the coordinated development of population,the economy and environment,Chinese government has formulated the population developmental strategy.Realizing the population development strategy is affected by many elements.It need construct the comprehensive evaluation model of population development quality to monitor and judge the complex developing process.How to find a comprehensive population-related development index system is critical to comprehensiveevaluation of the modeling process. The article is based on the population comprehensive development index system, and focuses on fuzziness and randomness that objectively exist in the population comprehensive development evaluation. It introduces the entropy theory of the information into the population development comprehensive evaluation model, and introduces the time series data about population development index of China in the past 23 years （ 1985 - 2007） . The article reveals change tendency of subordinative degree at various levels in this period, and uses the cross-section data in 2006 to appraise population integrated development condition of the whole nation and of the four municipalities （Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing）. The results proved that population development entropy-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is valid.