沿海区域自然灾害脆弱性特征及影响因素分析

Vulnerability Characteristics and Influence Factors of Natural Disasters in the Coastland

沿海地带具有重要的战略地位,然而特殊的地理位置、高度集中的人口和财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性。本文在讨论脆弱性内涵的基础上,理清了脆弱性、风险与灾情的关系,总结了自然灾害脆弱性评估的三种方法:基于历史数据、指标体系和实际调查的灾损率曲线。与国内依赖指标体系评价脆弱性不同,文章采用演绎法,据历史灾情参考全球尺度灾害风险评估国际计划的基本思路做灾后脆弱性的评估。在不考虑自然因素的前提下,采用相关分析方法找出影响自然灾害脆弱性的社会因素,结果表明:人口密度、人均产值、地均GDP三要素与脆弱性间具备显著的相关关系。最终,对沿海区域自然灾害脆弱性的特点进行研究,探讨了该区域宏观脆弱性的区域分异规律,并分析了产生这种现象的根本原因,旨在从人类社会本身找出灾难根源,为灾害保险和政府决策提供有效指导。

The coastland possess important strategic position, however, high-density population and fortune determine high vulnerability facing natural disasters due to special location. Based on the connotation of vulnerability, the article discusses the relationships among vulnerabihty, risk and loss, and concludes three main methods assessing vulnerability of natural disasters based on the historical natural disaster data, the indicator system and the stage-damage curve by investigation. Being different from the method based on the indicator system, the article assesses vulnerability of natural disasters referring to the ideas of international natural disasters risk assessment programmes and identifies social factors affecting vulnerabihty of natural disasters without taking into account natural factors by correlation analysis. The results shows that： population density, per capita output and GDP calculated in accordance with the land are the main elements which have a significant correlation with vulnerability. Finally, the article concludes the characteristics and regional differentiation rules of vulnerability in the coastland and analyzes the reasons of this phenomenon, in order to find out the origin of natural disaster vulnerability from the human society and to provide effective basis for insurance and decision-making of governments.