中国机电产品对外贸易与中国经济增长——基于1985-2006年数据的协整分析

Relationship between Foreign Trade of Mechanical and Electronic Products and Economic Growth in China——A Co-Integration Analysis Based on the Time Series Data 1985-2006

文章利用1985-2006年的经济数据,在单位根检验和协整分析的基础上进行了格兰杰因果检验和建立误差修正模型,对中国机电产品对外贸易与经济增长关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国机电产品进出口与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,进出口与经济增长之间是单向的格兰杰因果关系。并针对中国机电产品出口过程中存在的出口结构不合理、技术含量与附加值较低等问题提出了相应的对策建议。

Based on the Unit Root Test and Co-Integration Analysis and the time series data from 1985 to 2006, this paper applies granger causality test and error-correct model to the empirical research on foreign trade of mechanical and electronic products and economic increase in China. The author draws a conclusion that there exists a long-run and stable equilibrium, and one-way Granger causality relationships between them. In the end of the article, he also puts forward some countermeasures in optimizing export structures and increasing technical contents and added value in the export.