一组预测方法的比较分析

Group of forecasting methods comparative analysis

预测是科学决策的基础,如何选择合适的预测方法,对于获得好的预测结果具有重要影响。就现在比较流行的一组预测方法做简单介绍后,利用中国1978年～2006年货运周转量数据,用文中介绍的方法分别做出预测和预测误差测定,并对各种方法给出简单评述,并再次验证了复杂方法预测效果并不一定比简单方法好的结论。具有一定的理论和实践意义,为进一步研究组合预测方法奠定了基础。

The forecast is the base of scientific decision-making,how to choose the fight forecasting method,is very important for forecasting results.This paper first briefly introduces a group of forecasting methods on popular,then uses the data of total freight in 1978-2006,and using the methods which describe to forecast and determinate the error,and finally gives various methods a simple comments.The conclusion is proved that the complicated method of forecasting is not necessarily better than the simple one once again.The paper has a certain theoretical and practical significance for the further study of combination forecasting methods and laid the foundation for further research.