斜坡演化的非线性特性分析

THE ANALYSIS ON NONLINEAR CHARACTERISTICS OF SLOPE DEVELOPING PROCESS

斜坡演化过程极为复杂，在演化过程中往往表现出明显的非线性特性。采用ＢＤＳ统计分析和非线性时滞相关性判定法，研究这种非线性特性。研究结果表明，通常斜坡演化时间序列所呈现的波动性不是完全随机的，波动数据间存在着复杂的非线性相关关系。这种相关性，可为预报斜坡演化趋势提供准确尺度。

The developing process of slope is very complicated, and the nonlinear characteristics is usually obvious in the developing process. In this paper, this kind of nonlinear characteristics was analyzed by using the BDS statistical analysis method and the nonlinear time lag correlated character determination method. The results showed that the wave characteristics in the temporal series of the developing process are not stochastic wholly. There are complicated mutual nonlinear correlations among the waving data, which can offer a scale for the accurate forecast on the developing tendencies of slopes.