基于组合模型的黑龙江省人口预测及分析

The Analysis and Prediction of Heilongjiang Province Population Based on there Models

首先以1993～2004年黑龙江省人口数据资料为依据,应用Logistic增长模型,线性回归模型,灰色系统GM(1,1)理论,分别构建人口预测模型,预测结果与实际数值比较、分析,表明模型应用效果比较符合实际。然后考虑到定性和定量性,将模型有机的结合,建立一个更合理的模型,提高模型预测精度,对2007～2012年黑龙江省的已有人口数和未来人口规模进行分析与预测。

In this paper, first based on the population data of 1993~2004, applied Logistic growth model, Linear regression model and Gray system dynamic model to establish population prediction model and compares the prediction results of the three models separately,the results showed that the models are more relistic. Then taking into the quality and quantitative, integrate the two models organic to construct a more rational model, improved the model prediction accuracy. Last analyzed the existing population and predicted the population from 2007-2012.