华北平原地下水演化及预测

Groudwater Evolution and Prediction in North China Plain

华北平原近４０年来大规模地下水开采已导致一系列严重的环境问题，不利于当地经济可持续发展。本文根据地下水演化主要取决于自然因素和人类活动，本着抓主要矛盾且易于操作的原理，主要研究降雨及开采地下水这一对主要供需矛盾，利用水均衡方法并结合数理统计方法，建立地下水演化模型并预测该区主要地区和城市的水资源盈亏情况，为该区地下水合理开发利用及环境保护提供科学依据。

In the past 40 years groundwater has been overexploited in North China Plain ,which has resulted in a series of serious environment problems and hinders the sustainahle develppment of local economy.Groundwater evolution mainly depends on natural factors and human activities,in which the key aspects are precipitation and groundwater exploitation.Hence this couple of contradictions reflected by water supply and demand should be studied by using water balance in conjunction with mathematical statistic method to set up the evolution model and predict the situation of positive or negative water balance in major areas and metropolises in North China Plain.The author hopes that the study will provide scientific basis for exploitation and utilization of groundwater and environment protection.