贵州省退耕还林工程碳汇潜力预测

Carbon sequestration potential with the Grain for Green Program in Guizhou Province

收集贵州省2000-2007年退耕还林的面积和树种数据,并对2008-2010年期间的年度造林面积设置6种可能情景。然后根据贵州省森林资源清查中人工林生长的历史数据,拟合出退耕还林工程主要树种的生长曲线,再结合各树种的生物量扩展系数、木材密度和碳含量等参数,利用"人工林生长曲线法"估算出贵州省未来50a不同情景下的退耕还林工程碳储量变化。结果表明在2010,2020,2030,2040,2050年,贵州省退耕还林工程碳储量分别达到15.013～15.585,33.421～41.296,40.755～56.224,41.640～66.111和47.314～71.252Tg,有着相当大的碳汇潜力。

To estimate carbon stock changes to the year 2050 in Guizhou Province,area and tree species data from 2000 to 2007 for Guizhou s Grain for Green Programs （GGP） were collected,and six possible scenarios of annual area for the period 2008 to 2010 were set up. Based on National Forest Inventory data,growth curves for the main tree species planted in the GGP were derived,then growth curves were used to establish calculating model for carbon stocks in combination with biomass expansion factors （BEF）,wood density （WD）, and carbon fractions （CF）. Results showed that carbon stock （in Tg） of GGP forests in Guizhou would be： 15.013 - 15.585 in 2010, 33.421 - 41.296 in 2020, 40.755 - 56.224 in 2030, 41.640 - 66.111 in 2040, and 47.314 - 71.252 in 2050. Thus, the carbon sequestration potential up to the year 2050 is considerable.