合理施肥中投资风险预测研究

A Study on the Calculation of Investment Risk in Rational Application of Fertilizer

在合理施肥确定边际利润率值〔１〕的基础上，应用数学方法给出一种确定投资风险预测阈值Ｋ的方法。根据阈值Ｋ可预测施肥投资风险的大小。肥粮价格比例失调是造成投资风险过大的主要原因，本文通过计算机模拟可以计算出适宜的肥粮价格，为市场宏观调控提供可行性建议。

On the basis of determination of marginal profit rate in rational application of fertilizer,a mathematical model of determing threshold k, of investment risk is established.Based on the threshold k, the investment risk in application of fertilizer can be calculated.Proportion imbalance of fertilizer price to grainprice is a main reason of causing investment risk.In this paper,the proper prices of fertilizer and grain can be simulated by computer,and the prices are used to provide feasible proposal for macroscopic adjustment of market price.