ARIMA模型在门诊季节性时序预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA model in seasonal time-series prediction for outpatient

目的探讨某院5年门诊量的季节变动趋势。方法通过分析医院时间序列资料的变动规律，使用ARIMA（p，d，g）模型分析门诊量的动态变化。结果医院5年门诊量呈上升趋势及具有明显周期变化，预测值和实际值拟合程度高，相对误差在5．5％～6％之间。结论时间序列模型对于门诊人次发展变化规律的分析有较好的适应性和实用性。表明运用科学的方法，可以有效提高门诊管理水平。

Objective To investigate the variation trend of the amount of outpatient in a certain hospital for 5 years. Methods Through analyzing the variation regularity of time series, ARiMA（p, d,q） model is used to analyze the dynamic variation of the amount of outpatient. Results The amount of outpatient in a certain hospital has significant changes in the cycle in 5 years, high closeness of fit between predictive and actual data, the relative error is between 5.5% - 6%. Conclusion ARIMA （p,d, q） model is applicable and practical in analyzing the variation regularity of the amount of outpatient, which indicates that scientific method can he used to improve the level of outpatient management.