我国房地产市场的价格波动与宏观调控效应分析

Structural Change in Housing Price Fluctuation and Effects of Regulation Policies

通过建立马尔可夫转换模型并应用于中国的房地产市场分析,发现1998年以来中国的房地产市场价格一直处于上升周期,但增长快慢程度经常改变,宏观调控政策是其中的重要因素。但房地产市场发展的惯性和宏观调控的时滞、调控政策多元化目标的冲突及着力点不当、执行力度和贯彻落实不彻底等导致房地产调控的效果不佳。为此,要从明确调控目标、完善调控手段、规范政府行为等方面做出努力,使房地产宏观调控更为有效地发挥作用。

By constructing the Markov switching model and applying it to the analysis on the real estate market in China, we have found that since1998, the price in the real estate market has been in the rising cycle and the increasing speed alters frequently. The macro regulation policy is one of main factors for forming this kind of situation. However, the factors such as the inertia in the development of the real estate market and the time lag on macro regulation, the multi-aim conflict and misaiming, and infirmness of enforcement and implementation of the regulation policies have led to not achieving the results in real estate regulation as desired. Therefore, efforts should be made to clarify the regulation objective, perfect regulation devices, normalize government behaviors, etc. to cause the macro regulation of real estate to play a more effective role.