人口高龄化背景下基本养老保险个人账户未来超支测算

Forecasting of Future Overspending of Personal Account for Basic Old-Age Insurance at the Background of Population Aging

以中国现行的基本养老保险制度为依据,解释了基本养老保险个人账户未来超支的概念,设计了"新人"、"中人"个人账户基金收支变量和参数;运用利息理论,构建了"新人"、"中人"基本养老保险个人账户超支测算模型,利用灵敏性分析对模型进行了检验;并运用该模型对陕西省2010-2050年的基本养老保险个人账户超支额进行了预测;研究表明,陕西省基本养老保险个人账户超支总额将经历快速增长、缓慢增长、快速下降三个阶段。

In accordance with the existing system of basic old-age insurance in China, the paper explained the terms of future personal account＇s over-spending of the basic old-age insurance, designed the payment variables and parameters of the fund of personal account for the ＂new person＂ and ＂middle person＂. By applying the theory of interest rates is constructed the model for forecasting the amount of overspending of the personal account of the basic old-age insurance for the ＂new person＂ and ＂middle person＂. The model was tested by use of sensitivity analysis. The overspending amount of the personal account for the basic old-age insurance of Shaanxi Province in the period from 2010 to 2050 was forecasted using the model. The research results show that such overspending amount will go through three stages-rapid growth stage, slow growth stage and rapid drop stage.