家庭因素对贫困地区农村劳动力外出决策的影响——基于甘肃10个贫困村调查资料的实证分析

The Familial Factors of Impacting on the Decision of Rural Labor Force Outgoing in Poverty Areas——The Logistic Regression Analysis Based on the Data of Ten Poverty Villages in Gansu Province

已有研究表明,家庭因素是影响农村劳动力外出决策的重要因素,但在某些个别因素方面得出的结论却存在着较大差异,同时也存在着对一些重要因素的遗漏问题。本文利用对甘肃省10个贫困村的调查资料,运用Logistic回归方法,对影响贫困地区农村劳动力外出决策的家庭因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:农户家庭人口、劳力、耕地规模都对劳动力外出决策有着显著的正向影响,而家庭上学子女数却对劳动力外出决策有着显著而重要的反向影响。

The familial factors are one of the most important factors affecting the rural labor force to migrant, which has been confirmed by many researches. However, there are some conclusions has significant differences in few factors such as the agricultural acreage for each family, the characteristics of individual and so on. It still exists some omission problems on few important factors, for instance, the influences on the outgoing decision by the educational conditions for their children. Therefore, according to the research data in ten poverty areas in could influence the outgoing decision of Gansu province, this paper analyzed the familial factors which rural labors in poverty areas by using the Logistic Regression Model. The result indicated that the number of people in each rural family, the labor force, and the scale of farmland have significant positive correlation with the labor force outgoing in rural areas, while the number of children who is getting educati on has a reverse influence.