摘要
社会折现率是国家公共项目决策中需要重点研究的一个参数,但数据显示,不同国家之间以及一个国家在经济发展的不同阶段,社会折现率都存在较大的差异。资本的稀缺程度、经济增长速度的快慢和通货膨胀率的高低是影响社会折现率的主要因素。本文通过1997年～2006年中国、印度、俄罗斯、巴西("金砖四国")社会折现率主要影响因素的研究发现,经济增长的高速度是中国和印度社会折现率的主要支撑因素,同时我国较低的贷款利率和通货膨胀率一定程度上抵消了经济高速增长带来的高折现率数值,因此折现率低于印度;高通货膨胀率是俄罗斯社会折现率较高的主要原因;巴西尽管通货膨胀率和贷款利率处于较高的水平,但较低的经济增长速度使其社会折现率在"金砖四国"中处于最低的位置。
Social discount rate (SDR) is very important in the decision-making progress of public investment project,while it is different in different countries or different economic stages of one country. The extent of development of financial market and the scarcity of capital,economic growth rate and the inflation rate are the main influence factors on SDR. The major factors are contrasted and analyzed in this paper with the data of BRICs (Brazil,Russia,India and China) from 1997 to 2006. Rapid economic growth accounts for the high SDR in China and India,meanwhile,because of lower interest rate and inflation rate,China′s SDR is lower than India. For high SDR in Russia,high inflation rate is the main reason,and in Brazil,it is the high market interest rate. However,due to the low economic growth rate,Brazil choose the lowest SDR in BRICs.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第10期14-17,共4页
World Economy Studies
